SURE FOOTING|Retirement Guide Service
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For 401(k) and IRA savers near or in retirement

The same average return can last 20 years or run out in 10.

It depends on when the bad years show up. If you're within 5 years of retiring, or you just got there, I want you to see this for yourself. Use 20 real years of the S&P 500, your own starting balance, and see how the order of the years changes the ending.

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Free tool · The Sequence Shuffle

Shuffle the Years

Two real 20-year stretches of the S&P 500. On the left, the most recent 20 years, 2006 to 2025. On the right, 2000 to 2019, one of the toughest 20-year stretches to retire into. Same paycheck, same raises. Press Shuffle the Years and each column mixes up its own 20 years. Same years, same average, new order, new ending.

3% a year
A word from me

The 4% rule isn't wrong, it's just not a plan. It was built from past averages, and you only get one order of years. Use it as a starting point, then build in a way to adjust when the market has a bad year.

Mike, Sure Footing

Why I show this at every kitchen table

I've sat at a lot of kitchen tables with folks who did everything right. They saved for 30 or 40 years. They got a decent average return. And they still lay awake wondering if the money would last.

Look at the two columns. The last 20 years were strong ones, only 3 down years. The 2000 to 2019 stretch was tough. The dot-com crash hit right out of the gate, then 2008. Same paycheck, same raises, very different endings.

Now press Shuffle the Years. Each column keeps its own 20 years, so its average never moves. Only the order changes. When the bad years show up right after you retire, you're pulling out a paycheck while prices are down. Those dollars are gone, and they never get to ride the good years back up.

Same market, same average, but whether you run out depends on the order the years show up.

Press Bad years first to see the worst order for each stretch. Press Reset to put the years back the way they really happened. If you're within a few years of retiring, that's the question to ask: "What's our plan if the bad years come first?"

How the math works

  • Year 1 you take your withdrawal rate times your starting balance (4% of $1,000,000 is $40,000).
  • Every year after, that paycheck gets a 3% raise, no matter what the market did. That's the classic fixed "4% rule."
  • The paycheck comes out at the start of each year. The rest grows or shrinks with that year's S&P 500 total return (dividends included).
  • Each column only ever shuffles its own 20 years. The two columns shuffle separately.
  • 100% stocks. No fees, no taxes. That's on purpose, so you can see the order effect by itself.
  • "Ran out" means the account couldn't cover the full paycheck that year.
Your personal results

Want your numbers on one page you can print?

Tell me where to send them. I'll show your results right here, and send you a printable summary to keep at the kitchen table.

  • 1Your numbers, side by side. Your balance and paycheck in the real order, with bad years first, and with good years first, for both stretches.
  • 2One plain-English takeaway. What your numbers are telling you, in a sentence or two.
  • 3Route Notes, free. Short emails from me, each with a story from the mountain and one idea you can use. Unsubscribe anytime.

Thanks!

Your results are just below. A printable copy and your first Route Notes email are on the way to your inbox. If you don't see it in a few minutes, check your spam or promotions folder.

Mike Brewer, Sure Footing
Who's your guide

Hi, I'm Mike.

On a big mountain, the guide's job isn't to carry you to the top. It's to know the route, point out what you can't see from where you're standing, and help you get there and back down safely. Some folks call that guide a sherpa. That's how I think about my work.

[PLACEHOLDER: a line or two on your background and how many years you've been helping people plan for retirement, in your words] I've climbed for years too, and my son and all five of my grandkids have taken it up. Climbing taught me most of what I know about planning for the long haul.

Here's what I do and don't do. I teach strategies, not products. I don't sell investments, insurance, or annuities, and nothing here is a pitch for one. A good advisor, agent, or attorney is worth having on your team. My job is to help you understand your options so you walk into those meetings knowing what to ask.

"Some dangers you can't see from where you're standing."
Mike Brewer, Sure Footing
The Climb

What you'll learn on The Climb

The calculator shows you one problem. The Climb is my 9-step course that walks you through the whole path, three camps at a time.

Base Camp

Know exactly where you stand

Lay out everything you have in one place, see what it can really do, and learn how to pick the right help.

Steps 1 to 3
High Camp

Build a paycheck that lasts

Lighten the load, set up money you can count on, and plan for the years when the market has a bad one.

Steps 4 to 6
Summit & Descent

Keep more and pass it on

Plan for taxes before they come down on you, get your papers in order, and pass your packs to the people you love.

Steps 7 to 9

See The Climb →